Dodgy Favourites Review
Review by Colin Pendlebury
The Dodgy Favourites system by Paul Fowlie is one of the latest betting systems to be released by Sportsworld Publishing. The aim of the system is to go against the crowd, and identify horses that will be over-bet by the market.
The idea is that these horses should go off at a shorter price than they actually should be, thus allowing us to lay them on the betting exchanges at a superficially short price. This means each bet should be a value lay and ensure a long term profit.
The system is very brief – in fact it comes as a Word document that is only 2 pages long, so none of the usual padding that you get with a lot of systems these days.
When you look at the selection criteria you’ll probably be a bit surprised, especially if you’ve used other horse racing back and lay systems before, because a lot of the criteria would normally be associated with picking horses to back rather than to lay.
“Going AGAINST the crowd is a novel way to make a profit – but it works”
But you have to remember the key theme of the Dodgy Favourites system is to obtain value lays, which is precisely why you need to go against what everyone else will be doing in order to profit. It’s certainly a novel way to go about things, but the most important thing is that it works.
The selections are certainly easy enough to obtain, there should be no ambiguity and everyone should get the same results. I can’t really say that the manual is particularly well written or otherwise, as it’s basically a list of bullet points that define the selection criteria. However I found it perfectly easy to understand and did not need to query anything with the author.
Another potential benefit is that selections can be obtained the night before, and bets placed in advance using Betfair SP, making the system suitable for those at work during the day.
“The results show a consistent profit year on year with 299 Pts Profit since Jan 2003”
I trialled the Dodgy Favourites system for six weeks. During the trial period there were several days when meetings were abandoned due to bad weather. Because of this I got only 11 selections during this time. With 10 of my 11 bets winning, I made a healthy profit of 9.14 Points after standard 5% commission – all prices quoted to Betfair SP.
Although obviously these are impressive results, I do feel that this is too small a sample on which to judge the Dodgy Favourites system. Therefore, I decided to enter the selection criteria into my results database and back test the system on all races run since January 2003.
I’m pleased to say the results I got from the database were no less impressive. An overall strike rate of 79% was achieved, with a profit of just short of 300 points being made to estimated Betfair SP, again after 5% commission.
During Trial Period:
Strike Rate: 91%
P/L: 9.14 Pts Profit (to Betfair SP, net of 5% commission)
(£182.80 to £20 level stakes)
Strike Rate: 79%
P/L: 299.1 Pts Profit (to Betfair SP, net of 5% commission)
(£5,982 to £20 level stakes)
Overall I have no hesitation in recommending this system. It’s brief and gets straight to the point, which is either a good or bad thing depending on your point of view. However what cannot be disputed is that the selections are easy to obtain, and can be done in advance the night before. Most importantly of course, the bottom line is that it makes a consistent profit and I can see no reason why it will not continue to do so in the future.
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